Posted on: 17 January 2026
Peak Season Outlook
Peak Season Rate Hikes Loom as Carriers Push Back Against Falling Demand
The 2026 shipping peak season is shaping up to be a tug-of-war between falling demand and carrier efforts to defend rates. Industry data shows that peak season rates, typically running from August through October, tend to run 40–80% higher than off-peak pricing — but this year, that pattern is colliding with a market that has spent recent weeks in decline.
Carriers have responded by introducing new Freight All Kinds (FAK) rate levels to push pricing back up. Reports indicate carriers were set to implement a new FAK level of $7,800 per 40ft on Asia-North Europe shipments and $6,700 per 40ft on Asia-Mediterranean shipments, effective mid-August. This comes even as spot rates had spent another week in decline, with the market watching to see whether a new round of carrier GRIs would push transpacific rates up in the following week.
On the other hand, some regional lanes are still trending downward. Reports on the Australia trade lane note rates dropping by roughly USD 200 lower each week for 40HQ containers, benefiting businesses shipping consumer goods, machinery, furniture and construction materials. This divergence reflects how peak season pricing pressure is playing out differently across trade lanes.
Businesses planning shipments for the coming months are being urged to secure rates early, ahead of carriers finalizing peak season increases.